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The results indicate that governments should subside fossil fuels by about 18 US$/tonne of CO, rather than impose carbon taxes.
Energy Balance Climate Sensitivity The most important parameter in determining the economic impact of climate change is the sensitivity of the climate to greenhouse gas emissions.
The upper 95% limit dropped dramatically from 4.05 °C using AR5 forcing to only 2.2 °C when using the new Stevens aerosol forcing estimates.Climatologist Nicholas Lewis used an energy balance method to estimate the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) best estimate at 1.45 °C from a doubling of CO after allowing the oceans to reach temperature equilibrium, which takes about 3000 years.A more policy-relevant parameter is the Transient Climate Response (TCR) which is the global temperature change at the time of the CO at the current growth rate of 0.55%/year would take 126 years.Nicholas Lewis writes, “In this context, what is IMO a compelling new paper by Bjorn Stevens estimating aerosol forcing using multiple physically-based, observationally-constrained approaches is a game changer.” Stevens is an expert on cloud-aerosol processes.He derived a new lower estimate of aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m.The two periods used for the analysis were 1859-18-2011.They were chosen to give the longest early and late periods free of significant volcanic activity, which provide the largest change in forcing and hence the narrowest uncertainty ranges.Using the FUND integrated assessment model results, the mean estimate of the social cost of carbon on a global basis is determined to be -17.7 US$/tonne of CO.The benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization, longer growing season, greater arable land area, reduced mortality and reduced heating costs greatly exceed harmful effects of warming.The average of the absolute natural temperature change over the four periods was 0.095 °C/century, as shown in Table 1 and Figure 2. Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperatures utilizing many palaeo-temperature proxy records, adapted from Ljungqvist 2010.The shading represents 2 standard deviation errors.